Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -3.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.7% | -2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.5% | +20.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.0% | +27.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Extraction Incision | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glowering Conflagration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scale of Souls | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regenerate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |